杀手机器人会成为终结者吗 Robots can kill but they do not|奥门新浦京网999

I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe,” the villain played by Rutger Hauer reminisces at the end of the film Blade Runner after hauling Harrison Ford’s character on to a roof top and sparing his life. “People” is the operative word since Roy Batty is not a person but an android who escapes to earth from a space colony and takes revenge on the Tyrell Corporation, his creator.“我见过的事，你们人会坚信。”在电影《银翼刺客》(Blade Runner)末尾，鲁特格尔樠尔(Rutger Hauer)饰演的主角将哈里森輠祹(Harrison Ford)饰演的角色纳返屋顶，仲了他一命，然后讲出了这句话。

在这句话里，“人”是最重要的字，因为罗伊巴蒂(Roy Batty)不是人类，他是个机器人。他从太空殖民地逃亡到地球，向自己的创造者“泰勒公司”(Tyrell Corporation)实行背叛。That is what I call a killer robot — a being that can hold an intelligent conversation with you before wiping you out. It was science fiction in 1982, when Blade Runner, based on Philip K Dick’s dystopian fantasy novel Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? came out. It is now faintly plausible — sufficiently for artificial intelligence researchers to warn this week of the dangers of an autonomous arms race.这才是我指出的“刺客机器人”(killer robot)，一个在歼灭你之前，能与你展开一场高智商谈话的不存在。电影《银翼刺客》改编自菲利普迪克(Philip K. Dick)的反乌托邦奇幻小说《机器人不会哭泣电子羊吗？》(Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep)。

影片公映于1982年，当时它还是一部科幻电影，如今却类似于知道，当真对于人工智能研究人员来说早已不足以继续下去了，前不久他们警告要谨防经常出现自律式武器军备竞赛的危险性。The killer machines feared by those such as Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla Motors, and Stephen Hawking, the theoretical physicist, are crude terminators by comparison with the Nexus replicants in Blade Runner. No one would fall in love with an armed quadcopter that blows up enemy soldiers, as the hero of Blade Runner does with Rachael, the female android who does not realise that she is a replicant.还包括特斯拉汽车(Tesla Motors)创始人埃伦穆斯克(Elon Musk)、理论物理学家斯蒂芬霍金(Stephen Hawking)在内，这些专家们所担忧的杀人机器，与《银翼刺客》里的“连锁”（Nexus）拷贝人比起的话，只是完整级别的终结者。

《银翼刺客》里的瑞秋(Rachael)射杀杀掉哈里森輠祹葲敌人时，这位男主公爱上了她——瑞秋是个女机器人，她并不知道自己是拷贝人。但是当一台配有武器的四轴飞行器杀掉敌方士兵时，没人会爱上它。

Robots can murder us but they cannot understand us. Autonomous killing machines are becoming reality — Israel already has its Harpy anti-radar drone, which loiters in the sky before choosing and destroying targets itself. A sentient, sophisticated machine with common sense and the capacity to grasp people’s moods and predict behaviour is still a distant prospect.机器人可以杀掉我们，但它们无法解读我们。自律式杀人机器正在沦为现实，以色列早已享有了哈比(Harpy)反雷达无人机，它可以在空中漫无目的地飞行中，然后自律自由选择目标并加以毁坏。

但是想要建构出有一架不具备常识，能解读人类情绪，预测人类不道德，享有感官能力的简单机器，仍是个很远前景。In theory, it will be created. Artificial intelligence researchers do not see the barrier in principle to robots developing higher reasoning powers, or the kind of physical dexterity that humans possess. The last remaining workers on car assembly lines are people who can attach screws nimbly and reach inside the body shells for electrical wiring in a way that has defeated robots to date.理论上谈，这种机器人是能其实的。人工智能研究人员看到任何应以的障碍，制止机器人发展出有更高水平的推理小说能力，或是人类那种灵活性的身体。汽车装配线上目前仅有只剩需要敏捷地把手螺丝的工人，以及一些需要到车身外壳里焊接电线的工人，机器人继续还无法比不上他们。

Machines also possess some advantages. They do not have to constrict their processing units to fit into skulls, and they do not need to supply them with oxygen, an energy-hogging technology. Nor are they limited by an evolutionary edict to reproduce, rather than purely to get cleverer.机器还占据一定的优势。它们不用为了合适颅骨大小而传输处置装置，它们也不必须氧气供应——这是个高度耗电的技术。

它们的再生也受演化法则容许，几乎可以显得更加聪慧。But despite rapid advances in machine learning, visual and voice recognition, neural network processing — all the elements that are now transforming the potential of artificial intelligence — androids are not with us. Computers can beat humans easily at chess, but poker at the highest level is beyond them — they would need to see through the other players’ bluffs.但尽管机器在自学、视觉及语音辨识、神经网络处置（这些元素都在转变人工智能的潜力）方面发展很快，机器人还是无法解读人类。计算机可以在国际象棋上精彩打败人类，但它们玩游戏没法最低水平的扑克牌游戏，因为它们得看破输掉的虚张声势。

“Computers are becoming better and better at perception tasks,” says Fei-Fei Li, director of Stanford University’s artificial intelligence laboratory. “Algorithms can identify thousands of types of cars while I can only tell three of them. But at the cognitive, empathetic, and emotional level, machines are not even close to humans.”斯坦福大学(Stanford University)人工智能实验室主任李飞飞说道：“计算机在感官任务上于是以显得更加好。它的算法早已能辨识数千种汽车，而我不能见到三种。但在理解、同理心和情感层面，机器还无法相似人类。

”I have also experienced something you people would not believe — Google’s self-driving car. The thing that struck me as it toured Mountain View in California recently was that it felt human. It accelerated from junctions confidently, even assertively, closing the gaps with vehicles in front so others could not rush in. We would be safer if all drivers were equally calm and rational.我也经历过一些事，你们这些人会坚信——谷歌的无人驾驶汽车。最近我坐着它游览了加州的山景城，愤慨地找到它感觉上就像人类。它热情地，甚至是冷静地从交叉路口加快，增大与前方车辆的距离，让其他车辆无法放入。

如果所有司机都能这样耐心和理性，我们的生命不会更加安全性。Inside the car, you can see what it perceives with its sensors and rooftop radar. The outlines of objects around, including pedestrians, buses and other cars, are displayed like hollow, moving shapes on the screen of a laptop held by a Google engineer. The objects are categorised by different colours, so the vehicle knows it should react to them and how far to steer clear.在谷歌无人驾驶汽车里，你可以看见它如何用传感器和车顶雷达展开感官。

一位谷歌工程师手执一台笔记本电脑，行人、公交车和其他车辆等周围物体的轮廓呈现出为空心的、移动的图形表明在屏幕上。这些物体按照有所不同颜色分类，因此无人驾驶汽车告诉该对它们作出反应，以及该从多近避免。A self-driving vehicle would, in other words, be a perfectly capable killer robot if you attached a missile launcher to its roof, and machine guns to its sides (not that Google would do such a thing, of course). It could cruise through cities, scanning for warm, slow-moving, pink-coloured objects to destroy.换言之，如果你在自动驾驶汽车的车顶加装一个导弹发射器，并且在车身两侧装有上机枪（当然啦，这并不是说道谷歌不会腊这种事），它几乎能化身“刺客机器人”。它可以悠闲地穿过城市，扫瞄搜索有热度的、较慢移动的粉红色目标加以毁坏。

So it is not scaremongering for scientists to warn of artificial intelligence research being tainted by association with autonomous weapons. The internet itself emerged from research funded by the US Department of Defence in the 1960s, and military and space programmes have the deepest pockets and the keenest interest in developing cutting-edge technology. What would be foolish would be to think the advent of killer robots means that machines are ready to take over the world.因此，科学家们警告人工智能研究领域不存在与自律武器结合的情况，并非是危言耸听。互联网本身就发源于美国国防部在上世纪60年代资助的研究课题，而且在研发尖端技术方面，军事和航天计划享有最实力雄厚的财力和最反感的兴趣。要有多傻，才不会指出“刺客机器人”的经常出现就意味著机器将接管全世界。Destroying things is easier than understanding or creating them. Artificial intelligence — the ability to scan, process and analyse large data sets — is not the same as the capacity to perform most human tasks (known as artificial general intelligence).毁坏事物比解读或建构事物更容易。

人工智能（扫瞄、处置和分析大型数据集的能力）并不等同于“强劲人工智能”(artificial general intelligence)，后者才具备继续执行大多数人类任务的能力。Even those who warn of machines taking jobs that are now performed by humans accept that managerial, professional, and artistic jobs that demand high level reasoning, empathy and creativity are still safe. A robot that scans a set of features to identify a woman, but cannot grasp her mood, or use common sense to solve an unexpected puzzle, remains very limited.一些人警告说道机器将偷走目前由人类已完成的工作，但就连他们也表示同意，管理、专业和艺术工作依然是安全性的，因为这些工作必须不具备高水平的推理小说能力、同感能力以及建构能力。机器人的能力仍十分受限，它可以通过扫瞄一系列特征来辨识一个女人，却无法体会她的情绪，也无法运用常理来解决问题意料之外的难题。

“Quite an experience to live in fear, isn’t it? That’s what it’s like to be a slave,” Roy Batty remarks to the human bounty-hunter he has defeated in combat before reaching out and rescuing him from falling to his death. Let us not enslave ourselves yet.罗伊巴蒂早已在决斗中战胜了人类赏金猎人，却又在输掉跳下屋顶时抱住救回了他一命。接着他对赏金猎人说：“活在不安里的滋味不好受吧？这就是当奴隶的感觉。”我们千万不要让自己沦落奴隶。

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